counterfactual

mastery
UK /ˌkaʊn.tə(ɹ)ˈfæk.tʃu.əl/ US /ˌkaʊntɚˈfæktʃuəl/nounadj

card 1 of 7 · synonym

Which word is closest in meaning to "counterfactual" in this sentence?

The implicit counterfactual — that these members would support gun control if not for the $1,000 they received from the NRA — seems unlikely to me.